Domestic Oilseed Meal Market Analysis: Volatile Downward Trend as of March 24, 2026

April 1, 2026, 3:51 PM

TDD-global

Guide

Highlights at a glance

As of late March 2026, China's oilseed meal market is in a volatile downturn. Soybean and rapeseed meal futures are correcting lower, while cottonseed meal prices consolidate. Diverging trends stem from international harvest progress, domestic inventory shifts, and tepid downstream demand. Key details: Soybean meal faces pressure from high Brazilian harvest estimates and falling domestic mill inventories, leading to weak futures and spot prices. Rapeseed meal shows a sharper correction with stable supply but poor demand. Cottonseed meal remains range-bound due to balanced supply-demand and firm feedstock costs. The short-term outlook points to continued weak adjustment for soybean and rapeseed meal, with stability for cottonseed meal, pending key USDA data and demand recovery signals.

As of March 24, 2026, the domestic oilseed meal market is exhibiting an overall volatile downward trend. Futures prices for soybean meal and rapeseed meal have corrected for several consecutive days, while cottonseed meal prices remain largely consolidating. Influenced by multiple factors including international soybean harvesting progress, changes in domestic oil mill inventories, and downstream breeding demand, price trends for these three types of meals have diverged. The short-term market remains in an adjustment phase. The following is a detailed analysis based on the latest market data.

I. Soybean Meal Market: Futures Correction, Spot Prices Following Market Trends, and Declining Inventories

Futures Market:
Soybean meal continuous futures (MZL2) on the Dalian Commodity Exchange have been trending downward recently. On March 24, the closing price was 2,961 CNY/ton, down 48 CNY/ton (1.60%) from the previous trading day, marking a cumulative five-day decline of 3.55%. Since reaching a phased high of 3,128 CNY/ton on March 13, the contract has entered a sustained correction mode. Notably, it fell by 61 CNY/ton in a single day on March 16. Although there have been minor fluctuations since then, the overall downward trend is evident. As of March 24, open interest stood at 1.6956 million lots, and trading volume was 1.1518 million lots, both showing a decline from earlier periods, indicating reduced market activity.

Spot Market:
Domestic spot prices for soybean meal show a weak stability accompanied by declines. On March 24, spot prices for 43% protein soybean meal in East China saw slight reductions; quotes from companies like Taizhou Huifu and Taixing Bangji dropped by 10 CNY/ton compared to the previous day. In the Guangdong market, quotes from Dongguan Cargill and Sinograin fell by 30 CNY/ton. Spot prices in Northeast China, Sichuan-Chongqing, and Jiangxi regions also generally decreased by 10-30 CNY/ton, with only the North China market remaining stable. The national average spot price for soybean meal on that day was 3,377.14 CNY/ton, representing a premium of 416.14 CNY/ton over the futures main contract price.

Supply Side:
Domestic oil mill soybean inventories continue to decline. Statistics show that in the 11th week of 2026, the actual crushing volume of soybeans at domestic sample oil mills was 1.9694 million tons, with an operating rate of 54.23%. National oil mill soybean inventories dropped to 5.4861 million tons, a decrease of 240,600 tons (4.20%) from the previous week. Soybean meal inventories fell to 627,300 tons, a reduction of 17.51%. The China National Grain and Oils Information Center estimates that by the end of March, oil mill soybean meal inventories will be around 550,000 tons, approximately 100,000 tons lower than the same period last year.

Internationally, the harvesting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 59.2% as of March 14. Although this is lower than the 69.8% recorded during the same period last year, production estimates remain high. Consequently, market concerns regarding imported soybean supply are gradually dissipating, exerting downward pressure on domestic soybean meal prices. Institutional views suggest a weak short-term adjustment for the soybean meal market, with key focus on the upcoming quarterly stocks and planting intentions reports from the USDA at the end of the month.

II. Rapeseed Meal Market: Significant Futures Correction, Synchronous Spot Weakness, and Stable Supply

Futures Market:
Rapeseed meal continuous futures (RMZL2) on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange experienced a sharper correction than soybean meal. On March 24, the closing price was 2,365 CNY/ton, down 52 CNY/ton from the previous day, marking a significant single-day drop. From March 16 to 24, prices fell continuously from 2,580 CNY/ton to 2,365 CNY/ton. As of March 24, open interest was 569,300 lots, and trading volume was 519,300 lots, reflecting decreased market activity compared to earlier periods. Reviewing the March trend, after hitting a phased high of 2,591 CNY/ton on March 13, the contract entered a rapid correction channel, plunging 89 CNY/ton on March 16, the largest single-day drop recently.

Spot Market:
Rapeseed meal spot prices weakened in sync with futures. Last weekend, spot prices in Fujian province were 2,460 CNY/ton, down 150 CNY/ton week-over-week. The spot basis (M05+37) fell by 18 points week-over-week.

Supply and Demand:
On the supply side, rapeseed crushing volumes at coastal oil mills remained stable. As of March 13, the crushing volume was 30,000 tons, and rapeseed meal production was 17,100 tons, both unchanged from the previous period, keeping supply pressure relatively controllable. On the demand side, the downstream breeding industry shows tepid demand, with procurement limited to essential needs, failing to support price increases. In the short term, rapeseed meal prices are expected to maintain a volatile downward trend.

III. Cottonseed Meal Market: Stable Consolidation with Limited Support from Supply and Demand

Unlike soybean and rapeseed meals, the cottonseed meal market has recently been characterized by consolidation, with prices remaining relatively stable. As of March 22, 2026, reference quotes for 46% protein cottonseed meal in Shandong province were 3,150-3,200 CNY/ton, and in Xinjiang province, they were 2,650-2,700 CNY/ton. Both regions showed no significant fluctuation compared to previous periods.

Key factors influencing the cottonseed meal market include the transmission of soybean meal trends, cottonseed prices, and supply-demand dynamics. On one hand, while oil mills have a strong willingness to hold prices, the volatile adjustment of soybean meal prices and the loss-making state of downstream industries (such as hog farming) result in weak demand, failing to effectively boost cottonseed meal prices. On the other hand, firm cottonseed prices and manageable supply pressure provide some support. In the short term, the cottonseed meal market is expected to continue its volatile consolidation, with close attention needed on future soybean meal trends and improvements in downstream demand.

IV. Market Summary and Outlook

Overall, the domestic oilseed meal market is currently in a phase of volatile adjustment. Soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices continue to correct due to expectations of international soybean supply, changes in domestic inventories, and weak downstream demand. In contrast, cottonseed meal prices remain stable thanks to a balanced supply-demand structure.

Moving forward, key factors to monitor include:

Shipping schedules of Brazilian soybeans and domestic arrival volumes.
Relevant reports released by the USDA at the end of the month.
Operating rates and inventory changes at domestic oil mills.
Recovery of demand in the downstream breeding industry.

It is anticipated that soybean and rapeseed meal prices will maintain a weak adjustment trend in the short term, while cottonseed meal prices will remain stable. Long-term trends will depend on further developments in the global agricultural product market landscape and domestic supply-demand shifts.

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